Who will be the next pope? Key candidates in an unpredictable process

Who Will Be the Next Pope? The World Watches a Momentous Choice Unfold

A decision that could shape the future of the Catholic Church—and impact the lives of 1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics around the globe—is on the horizon: the selection of the next pope.

This time, the process promises to be anything but predictable.

The College of Cardinals will gather behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, entering conclave to deliberate, debate, and vote until one name rises above the rest.

What makes this election particularly unique? Nearly 80% of the cardinal-electors were appointed by Pope Francis. While many share his global outlook, they don’t fall neatly into categories of “progressive” or “traditionalist,” making the outcome even harder to forecast.

For the first time in history, fewer than half of the voting cardinals are European, offering a truly international lens to the decision-making.

Could this be the moment the Church sees its first African or Asian pope? Or will the cardinals turn to a seasoned Vatican insider?

As the world waits, one thing is clear: the next pope could redefine the path of the Catholic Church for generations to come.

Here are some of the names being mentioned as Francis’s potential successor.

Pietro Parolin

Getty Images Cardinal Pietro Parolin wears a red cap on his head while he holds a smoking urn on a table against a backdrop of red chrysantheums during the Holy Mass on the occasion of the Solemnity of Mary, Mother of God, in St. Peters Basilica, Vatican City on 1 January.Getty Images

Nationality: Italian

Age: 70

Could Cardinal Parolin Be the Next Pope? A Diplomat in the Spotlight

Soft-spoken and sharply astute, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin has long stood at the heart of the Vatican’s inner circle. As secretary of state under Pope Francis, he served as the pope’s chief adviser and led the Roman Curia—the Catholic Church’s central governing body. In many ways, Parolin has already played the role of a “deputy pope.”

This close proximity to power places him among the frontrunners. Yet, as history has shown, papal elections rarely follow expectations.

Known for his diplomatic finesse and broad global vision, Cardinal Parolin is seen by some as a bridge-builder in a world marked by division. Supporters admire his pragmatic, outward-looking approach. Critics, however, fear it comes at the expense of doctrinal clarity.

His stance on key social issues has sparked both support and scrutiny. He notably condemned the 2015 Irish vote legalizing same-sex marriage, calling it “a defeat for humanity.”

Despite high odds from bookmakers and significant experience, Parolin knows better than to assume victory. An old Italian saying still echoes in Vatican corridors: “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.”

While Italy once dominated the papacy—213 of 266 popes were Italian—the tide has shifted. No Italian has worn the papal white for over four decades. And with the Church’s center of gravity moving further from Europe, even Parolin’s deep roots may not be enough.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

Getty Images Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle wears a red cap on his head as he looks away from camera in a head and shoulders portrait, while he attends a Mass with newly appointed cardinals presided by Pope Francis at St. Peter's Basilica on 8 DecemberGetty Images

Nationality: Filipino

Age: 67

Could the Next Pope Be Asian? Cardinal Tagle Emerges as a Global Contender

From the vibrant heart of the Philippines, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle brings a deeply pastoral voice to the global stage—rooted not in the cloisters of Vatican diplomacy or legal doctrine, but in decades of walking alongside everyday believers.

Often called the “Asian Francis,” Cardinal Tagle shares the late pope’s compassion for migrants, passion for social justice, and down-to-earth humility. His presence is powerful not because of titles, but because of his connection with the people.

The Philippines, where roughly 80% of the population is Catholic, is one of the Church’s most devout strongholds. With five Filipino cardinals currently in the College of Cardinals—a record number—their collective support could form a meaningful bloc behind one of their own.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

AFP Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo wears a green robe as he holds a smoking urn up above ornate gold wine cups and a cross on a table next to a book inside the Notre Dame du Congo Cathedral in Kinshasa on 9 February.

Nationality: Congolese

Age: 65

It’s very possible the next pope could be from Africa, where the Catholic Church continues to add millions of members. Cardinal Ambongo is a leading candidate, hailing from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

He has been Archbishop of Kinshasa for seven years, and was appointed cardinal by Pope Francis.

He is a cultural conservative, opposing blessings for same-sex marriage, stating that “unions of persons of the same sex are considered contradictory to cultural norms and intrinsically evil”.

Though Christianity is the majority religion in the DRC, Christians there have faced death and persecution at the hands of jihadist group Islamic State and associated rebels. Against that backdrop, Cardinal Ambongo is viewed as a fierce advocate for the Church.

But in a 2020 interview, he spoke in favour of religious plurality, saying: “Let Protestants be Protestants and Muslims be Muslims. We are going to work with them. But everyone has to keep their own identity.”

Such comments could lead some cardinals to wonder if he fully embraces their sense of mission – in which Catholics hope to spread the Church’s word throughout the world.

Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson

Reuters A mid-crop of Cardinal Peter Turkson looking solemnly ahead while wearing traditional religious robes along with others outside St. Peter's Basilica in April 2019.

Nationality: Ghanaian

Age: 76